What criteria do effective altruists use to determine whether to prioritize short-term or long-term impacts?

Effective altruism (EA) is a philosophy and social movement focused on using evidence and reason to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. One of the key debates within the community is whether to prioritize short-term impacts or long-term impacts. This article delves into the various criteria that effective altruists use to balance these considerations, making complex concepts more accessible and understandable.

Introduction to Effective Altruism

Effective altruism emphasizes maximizing the positive impact one can have on the world. This involves careful analysis and consideration of different strategies, sometimes pitting immediate, tangible benefits against the possibility of far-reaching, long-term gains. But how do effective altruists navigate this complex landscape? What criteria do they use to make informed decisions?

Understanding Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impacts

Short-Term Impacts

Short-term impacts refer to the immediate, often tangible effects of an altruistic action. Examples include providing food and water to those in need, funding medical treatments to save lives now, or supporting education for underprivileged children. The benefits are direct and measurable within a relatively short time frame.

Long-Term Impacts

Long-term impacts, on the other hand, involve initiatives whose benefits may not become apparent for years or even decades. Examples include investing in research to prevent future risks like pandemics, climate change mitigation, or fostering beneficial technologies like artificial intelligence safety. The goal is to create a foundational change that will produce significant benefits in the distant future.

Criteria for Evaluating Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impacts

Effective altruists use several key criteria to evaluate whether to prioritize short-term or long-term impacts. Below are the main considerations:

1. Scale of Impact

Importance of Scale

The scale of impact involves the potential magnitude of benefits. An action that could save millions of lives in the future may be deemed more effective than one that saves dozens now.

Example:

• A short-term intervention, like distributing mosquito nets to prevent malaria, has a clear and substantial immediate benefit.
• Conversely, investing in research to develop a universal malaria vaccine could potentially eradicate the disease, affecting future generations.

Evaluation

Effective altruists evaluate the scale by considering the number of individuals affected, the severity of the impact, and the duration of benefits.

2. Certainty of Outcome

Measuring Certainty

Certainty refers to how confident we are that a given action will lead to the desired outcomes. Short-term interventions often have higher certainty because the outcomes are more easily observable and predictable.

Example:

• Providing clean water to a community has a predictable and observable health benefit.
• Efforts to mitigate existential risks (like AI safety research) involve higher uncertainty due to the speculative nature of potential future scenarios.

Balancing Certainty and Potential Impact

Effective altruists often weigh high-certainty, smaller-scale benefits against lower-certainty, potentially massive-scale benefits to find a balanced approach.

3. Neglectedness

Evaluating Neglected Causes

Neglectedness assesses how many resources are already dedicated to addressing a problem. Issues that are less funded or less known might offer greater marginal benefits for additional funding.

Example:

• Major global health initiatives (e.g., polio eradication) receive substantial funding and attention.
• In contrast, research into far-future AI safety might be relatively underfunded, suggesting that contributions here could have a higher marginal impact.

4. Tractability

Ease of Progress

Tractability considers how easy it is to make progress on an issue. This involves assessing available methods, technologies, and the feasibility of achieving desired outcomes.

Example:

• Distributing deworming tablets in schools is highly tractable because the logistics and impact are well-understood.
• Encouraging global policy shifts to reduce carbon emissions for long-term climate impact is less tractable due to political and economic complexities.

5. Moral Considerations

Ethical Thoughts

Ethical considerations often influence prioritization. Some effective altruists argue that we have a moral obligation to future generations, advocating for long-term impacts. Others stress the importance of alleviating current suffering.

Example:

• Focusing on the immediate relief of extreme poverty acknowledges the urgent moral duty to reduce suffering now.
• Alternatively, ensuring the long-term survival of humanity through existential risk reduction aligns with the moral imperative to protect future generations.

Conclusion: Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts

Effective altruists continuously strive to find a balance between short-term and long-term impacts. By meticulously evaluating scale, certainty, neglectedness, tractability, and moral considerations, they aim to direct resources where they can do the most good, both now and in the future. The overarching goal remains constant: to use evidence and reason to make the world as beneficial a place as possible, for both current and future inhabitants.

By understanding and applying these criteria, anyone can contribute more effectively to altruistic endeavors, making a meaningful and lasting impact on the world.